jhon peter Submitted 2019-01-09 05:54:05 There is another 60 percent chance cold and heavy rain will merely swell the berries by 5-10 percent Wholesale Stephen Strasburg Jersey , decreasing their concentration. This will cause the worse grape quality that can only be sold for $2.00 per bottle. Now we can make an assumption and calculate the total profit if Jaeger harvests later and the storm did strike. We can use the EMV method to calculate the revenue. Developed beneficial Botrytis mold: $8x1000x12x40%x70% = $26,880 Not from botrytis mold : $2x1000x12x60% = 14,400 The total revenue is: 26,880 + 14,400 = $41,280 On the other hand, if the rainstorm did not strike, Jaeger could wait until the grapes ripen more fully, which has only a 40% chance to make a good wine. The price for this is $3.50 per bottle. However, there is a 40% chance of the grapes becoming a lighter wine, which can be sold to the wholesale for $3.00 per bottle. The other 20% chance is that it will lead to a low acidic wine, which only can be sold for $2.50 per bottle. Now we can assume and calculate for the total profit if Jaeger harvests later and the storm did not strike. Good wine: $3.5x1000x12x40% = $16,800 Lighter wine : $3.0x1000x12x40% = $14,400 Low acidic wine: $2.5x1000x12x20% = $6,000 The total revenue is: $16,800+$14,400+$6,000 = $37,200 As a result, the revenue for not harvesting immediately is $41,280 x0.5 + $37,200x0.5 = $39,240 The second possible option is to harvest the grapes before the storm comes. Even though Jaeger can avoid a huge loss by doing this, he cannot sell those for a good price because the grapes are not completely ready to be made into a high quality wine. It contains risk. Therefore, the not-quite-ripe grapes will directly affect the quality. They can be sold for $2.85 per bottle. At the same time, some of the grapes that did not meet the quality standard can only be sold in bulk. Jaeger can only receive half of the revenue($1.425). Now we can assume and calculate for the total profit when Jaeger harvests immediately. When Jaeger harvests immediately, the total revenue for bottling is: Bottling: $2.85x1000x12 = $34,200 (this method will affect the company鈥檚 reputation) Unbottling wine in bulk: $1.425x1000x12 = $17,100 In conclusion, Jaeger can contrast the above calculations to figure out the profit and loss from each possible option. The results show the profit for not harvesting immediately is greater than harvesting immediately. We calculate that there is 1- (17,100 $39,240) = 44% loss if Jaeger chooses to harvest immediately. The EMV for the 鈥渘ot harvesting immediately鈥?alternative exceeds the consequence associated with the 鈥渉arvesting immediately鈥?(Bodily, S. E, 1998 p.64). On the other hand, Jaeger also needs to consider the risks before he makes the decision. The reason why we do not harvest immediately with bottling is because it has a high risk to damage the company鈥檚 reputation. Even though they can be sold for a high price, it is not good in the long term for the company. In the short term, it is always preferable if we see a certain outcome in which Jaeger can sell unbottled wine in bulk for $171,00 without risk. Finally, we recommend Jaeger harvest later because we see the potential gains are twice more than those from harvesting immediately.
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07.09.2019 06:15
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